1	Our Biological Future Our Cultural Future Predictions of future events are more likely to be wrong the further those events are from the present.
2	Biology versus culture Your future as an individual is highly dependent on collective futures. The collective future has many levels: family, region, nation and the entire world. The collective future is intimately connected with culture, science, engineering and other attributes associated with humanity, but biology constrains possibilities. The views and opinions expressed are those of Dennis Nyberg, BioSci, UIC.
3	Religious views of the Future The prediction of the end of the world has a long human history. Götterdamerung, twilight of the Gods Coming of the messiah I find it interesting that many religions expect GOD will end life as we know it.
4	Evolutionary view of Future
5	Ecological View of Future Life is dependent of the continuous consumption of resources. The abundance of populations is primarily limited by the availability of resources needed by population. The cultural growth cycle describes population growth patterns.
6	The Cultural Growth Cycle Lag Exponential Stationary Decline Death
7	Human population growth Figure 52.12 graphically illustrates human population of earth in last 250 years Combined with a greater than exponential increase (doubling time has gotten shorter), per capita resource use has also increased This growth has been made possible by use of resources that will run out.
8	Life, Ecosystem function Is sustained by energy from the sun Captured by plants (producers) Supporting animals and others With materials recycled by detrivores Human population growth has been accelerated by use of resources that are not being renewed – oil and coal
9	Ecologists as prognosticators The Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich was one of the first warnings from ecologists. Pollution of environment with chemicals that impacted life was another warning of ecologists – Silent Spring by Rachel Carson Currently Global Warming is the alarm being sounded by ecologists.
10	Global Warming All scientists acknowledge earth has been getting warmer. A small minority still direct attention of geological and solar process rather than humans Greenhouse gases are known to have increasing concentrations in atmosphere, have known mechanisms by which they warm atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are largely a direct and inescapable product of use of non-renewable resources.
11	A peek into the future Nitrogen fixation by humans now equals the total of the natural world, this is a metaphor for the fact that human control of events is now more important than natural control. Individuals still die but many are sustained by technology that would naturally (God’s will) die. In past natural disaster would cause survivors to move, but now economic system is used to prop up area and nature’s impact is repaired.
12	If humans are controlling most of the world, do humans need goals? Goals are natural for individuals and for short time periods, for populations and long time periods they are both hard to agree to and hard to continue execution. Some people argue for sustainability as a goal for humans. Goals are intimately related to values, and science does not determine values.
13	Sustainability Sustainability, where inputs = outputs, is a natural idea to ecologists. Advocates of sustainability generally believe individual lives and humanity should live within the limits of resources imposed by the biological world (sun). Harmony and stability are valued more than progress.
14	Cultural progress An alternative goal would be to see how far we (humanity) could get before we run out of resources. In the last 100 years there has been a lot of change, much of that change is driven by an economic systems that rewards consumption of resources. How far can we get (before we hit the wall) ?
15	What are the problems for humans to decide upon collective goals? Attraction to the irrelevant Individuals seem attracted to events and activities that are irrelevant to human culture and our long term survival as a species Democracy The leadership unnecessary to survive when conditions are changing dramatically is very unlikely to be chosen by majority.
16	Reasons to believe democracy will accelerate progress Resources available have been expanded (thru the use of non-renewable materials and energy), the ‘economic pie’ has expanded and people come to expect more resources will be available in future. Politicians are selected to have a ‘rosy’ view and are unlikely to fix a situation prior to being aware of the beginning of collapse.
17	Economic view of future Is the value of our biological future ‘priceless’? Money brings value to the present. Economics can evaluate future value in the present using money. Economics can be used to place a dollar value on future biological attributes such as clean water, species, etc.
18	Money trivializes our biological future Human’s natural tendency is to devalue the future (because individuals die?). By valuing ‘ecosystem services’ or other biologically necessary attributes we suggest that the future has some value in the present. The only value of the future capacity to sustain life is in the future at the time it actually sustains life.
19	Population size & economics The US economy spends huge amounts of resources on the ‘living dead’. There is no shortage of people, but the desire of individuals to stay alive drives most of the medical economy. How will the transition to less resources and smaller numbers of people be made?
20	Alternatives The collectively human economics and politics are accelerating the consumption of resources whose disappearance reduces the long term survival of the human species. But could people be satisfied to live in a sustainable manner with little progress in science or other cultural activities?
21	Conclusions – possible outcomes Human ingenuity is great. There may be setbacks, i.e. human cultures have collapsed, but people eventually solve the problems, especially those they created. The world has been so interconnected, integrated and modified that, unlike what we could do in the past (metapopulation idea= leave and colonize new spot), there will be no clean environment to escape to.