IDS 446

Course Outline - Tentative

Topics in probability will be developed daily for the first several weeks of the term. Concepts to be discussed include experiment, sample space, random variable, the laws of probability, and assignment of probabilities. Skills to be discussed include computing probabilities, computing conditional and joint probabilities, and applying Bayes' Rule. These topics are covered in some class notes to be provided, Chapter 7 of Clemen, and the Math 160 textbook. (I have put this on reserve.)

Monte Carlo Simulation - 5 class periods

• Notes on Simulation

Decision Analysis Framework - 2 class periods

• Clemen, Chapters 1 and 2

Influence Diagrams and Decision Trees - 3 class periods

• Clemen, Chapter 3
• DPL Manual, Chapter 1

Context and Objectives - 2 class periods

• Clemen, Chapter 3
• Clemen, Chapter 4

Sensitivity Analysis - 5 class periods

• Clemen, Chapter 5
• DPL Manual, Chapter 8

Good Influence Diagrams - 2 class periods

• Clemen, Chapter 3
• DPL Manual, Chapter 3

Assessing Subjective Probabilities - 2 class periods

• Clemen, Chapter 8

Risk Attitudes - 6 class periods

• Clemen, Chapter 13

Revised, 9 January, 2000, JNH.