15.3 Population Growth II Not Enough People?

The science writer Isaac Asimov has calculated that if the world population should continue to double every 35 years, by the year 6,826 AD, the biomass of humanity would equal the mass of the universe. This is absurd, but the question remains, is there an overpopulation problem on Earth? Some think not. Many countries fear declining births.

.....

I. CHINA'S ONE-CHILD POLICY

Twenty years ago, China launched a controversial family planning program based on dissuasion and coercion to stem what was perceived as runaway population growth. The most draconian methods have been forced abortion and the virtually universal requirement that married women must be fitted with an intrauterine device regardless of health consequences. Some areas have instead imposed fees as high as $2500. to have a child.

Growth has indeed slowed, yet during 1996 China added 13 million people to its numbers. Rural folk have been less cooperative; however, the one-child policy has achieved statistical wonders. In one generation, China's birth rates have plunged to 1.9 children per mother--a rate that, if sustained, will lead to depopulation. At this time, one in five people on Earth is Chinese. At the turn of the millennium, China's population will total 1.3 billion, 100 million more than the official goal.

That decline has exacerbated another problem familiar in the West: rapid aging. There will be 129 million Chinese over the age of 60 as of the year 2000. By 2020, one in four will be elderly (twice the total present population of the United States)--a rare burden for a low income country. The problem is emerging now in many large cities where the birth rate can no longer sustain population levels except through peasant immigration into urban areas. China is officially easing its one-child policy in a few selected urban areas, but Chinese urban cultural attitudes about having children have now changed. Some young adults don't want children at all.

The oldest only children are twenty-somethings now. Many questions remain about them, but some intriguing attitudes are emerging. While many say that a two-child family is ideal, many have placed career first. They think one is enough. One cynically quipped "most people think raising a dog is already too much work!" China reduced its birth rate intentionally. In much of the world, the birth rate has declined to far lower levels.

One hundred million ethnic minorities are exempt from the one-child policy. Some rural Chinese are still having large families, while many wealthy and well educated urban couples are choosing to have no children at all.

In 1999, China claimed credit for delaying by four years, the birth of the world's six billionth person on October 12, 1999.

.....

II. FERTILITY TRENDS AND FUTURE POPULATIONS

Predicting population levels in the future is based on assumptions. We focus here on two of those assumptions because their implications are enormous.

.....

One is that populations in many countries are becoming increasingly older. Life expectancies at birth are increasing, especially in more developed--and even less developed countries such as sub-Saharan Africa. If birth rates fall, and people live longer, older people will predominate. Italy, according to one model would eventually have an average age of 58. One cynic termed this possibility 'a nation of wheelchairs!'

Within the next 35 years, the elderly will approach or exceed 40 percent of the populations in Japan, German and Italy. Question: what are the social and economic implications of infirm seniors increasingly demanding medical services? Who will pay? (My note: don't panic! Demographics are constantly changing and predictions are notoriously wrong. However, it is demonstrably true that--at present--birth rates in many countries have declined. Citizens in industrial countries are increasingly gray, but are living more productive and healthy lives now.)

.....

World population growth is slowing dramatically. The immediate reason for this decline is shrinking family size. The world's total fertility rate--the number of children born per woman during her lifetime--has declined to 2.9, it lowest level ever. In 1985, the worldwide total fertility rate was 4.2. In many countries, couples commonly stop at one or two children.

As of 1998, 79 countries--representing fully 40% of the world's population-had fertility rates below the level necessary to stave off long term population decline. The developed nations are in the worst straits. Already 15 of them, including Russia, Germany and Italy, each year fill more coffins that cradles. Virtually all the others will soon follow suit if the present trends persist. In Germany and Japan, despite hefty financial rewards for women bearing children, the maternity wards remain empty.

The 'birth dirth' as it is called by some has now spread beyond the developed world. There are now 27 'developing' countries where women are averaging fewer than 2.2 children. These include such unlikely candidates as Sri Lanka and Thailand. Consider this: how much of Japan's present day economic malaise can be directly traced to a lack of young people to power the economy? (My note: shortly we describe an increasing unwillingness of young Japanese women to marry. They don't want what traditional Japanese marriage has to offer.)

While the populations of portions of Africa, Asia and Latin America will continue to grow for several more decades, other parts of the world will soon experience demographic free fall. This creates the specter of towns without children, schools closed for lack of children, labor shortages, a declining housing market and more. The United States enjoys population growth today because of immigration from other countries.

Moral and ethical questions emerge. Should resources be redirected from family planning to women's health and the welfare of children?

.....

World population will continue to grow. More young people than ever before in human history are poised to start families of their own. More than one billion people are between the ages of 15 and 24 years of age. Most are in the have-not nations of sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. In Africa, the number of children per woman in 1998 was 5.6, well above the number just needed for replacement.

.....

III. THE SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF FEWER CHILDREN

We have mentioned briefly the implications of society dominated by the elderly and the economic drag imposed by too few children. Some think that is why Japan is experiencing an economic slowdown today. If present trends continue, the European Economic Union would require births per woman per lifetime of not much less than 2.1. It is now closer to 1.4. At this rate the EU population would be cut in half in two generations IF there is no immigration and IF present-day trends hold.

The lowest birthrate in the world in recent years was in Italy. Figures reported by the United Nations in September 1999 cites that Spain is now the least fertile country with an astonishing rate of 1.15 children per woman! Italy, according to March 1999 figures aren't far behind-at 1.19 births per woman. In Italy there are more folks more than 65 than children less than fifteen. One Italian mayor has proposed taxing unmarried people.

.....

The decline in the birthrate foretells of a world in which the only biological relatives for many people will be their ancestors. Think about what happens if you are childless, and an only child.

Consider the long term kinship implications for China's one-child policy. First generation children have no siblings. Second generation children will have no siblings, cousins, aunts or uncles. They will have only parents, grandparents, and possibly a few great-grandparents. Imagine your holidays with that scenario. Again, IF projections hold long term, Italy with its world's lowest birth rate will most closely approximate this scenario.

.....

IV. THE WANING GROWTH OF MEGACITIES IN LATIN AMERICA

World wide, there is increasing urbanization. More people have chosen to live in cities, and the trend has been most dramatic in Latin America. Mexico City was expected to balloon to 27 million by the year 2000. It apparently will not happen. The growth of the largest cities in Latin America is expected to fall short of previous projections. Immigration into these cities is reversing. Natural growth is slowing down. This means that Latin America will only have two of the world's 15 largest cities in the year 2000. The bulk will be in Asia. Some speculate that they are becoming increasingly unlivable for their poorest citizens.

Is urban ecology depressing birthrates? Maybe. The answer is much more complex.

.....

V. JAPAN'S YOUNG WOMEN TURN FROM MARRIAGE

Increasing numbers of Japanese women are achieving something new for women in that country: careers, financial independence, and personal freedom. Japan's younger women are less interested in being a wife and mother and are less willing to stay at home and take care of the husband's family. The drop in birthrate, now at 1.42, is well below what is needed to sustain Japan's current population--a serious issue in a country that is closed to immigration. The social, political, and economic impact of the 'birth-dirth' is immense.

.....

VI. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND ITS CRITICS

The demographic transition theory says that global fertility rates will decrease as women become more affluent and better educated. As they pursue schooling and careers, they will delay having children and will have fewer of them. This is especially exemplified in industrialized countries with well-educated populations concentrated in cities.

This theory is so widely held, that anyone who dares challenge it can expect criticism.

Virginia Abernethy, a PhD anthropologist from Harvard argues for the fertility-opportunity hypothesis, which says that good times have sparked baby booms. So, critics ask, why are birth rates down in Japan and Europe? Abernethy argues that people in these countries perceive growing scarcity and more limited economic opportunity than in the past. Japan's 'job for life' tradition is now pretty much extinct. Many European countries have prosperity, but high unemployment rates, too.

.....

VII. URBANIZATION AND THE DAY OF SIX BILLION

In 1927, when the world population topped two billion, Chicago was among the five largest cities on Earth-in a league with London, New York, Berlin, and Paris. By 2005, Chicago won't even be in a list of the top 30 metropolitan regions. In 2000, the Chicago metropolitan region-estimated at seven million-will be 29^th in the world, and steadily dropping.

Forty-five percent of the world's people now live in urban areas, up from roughly a third in 1960. Urbanization is occurring most rapidly in developing countries. The world now has 41 cities with five million or more people. Twenty-three are expected to join the ranks by 2015.

All but eleven of the total will be in the developed world. There, city dwellers tend to have higher standards of living and better health than their rural brethren. In the developing world, economies and infrastructure are hard pressed to keep up.

.....

Some writers are optimistic about the day of six billion, October 12, 1999. Nicholas Eberstadt writing in the Wall Street Journal says that long-term prices for the primary commodities that human being extract or harvest from the Earth-cereals, timber, oil, minerals and the like-are far lower than 100 years ago. He says that price information reflects scarcity and the information these prices convey are less scarce than ever before.

.....

As the global economy grows, rich nations are getting richer than ever, and poor ones are stuck in shantytowns. The richest 20% of the Earth's people have 86% of its income. The poorest 20% struggle to survive on 1%.

..... CJ '99

Resources

Eberstadt, N. "Six Billion Reasons to Cheer" Wall Street Journal October 12, 1999.

Eberstadt, N. "The Population Implosion" Wall Street Journal October 16, 1997.

Goering, L. "Expansion of megacities in Latin America wanes" Chicago Tribune January 19, 1996.

Kahn, J. "China Eases Up on Its One-Child Policy" Wall Street Journal October 20, 1977.

Keoun, B. "Of Earth's 6 billion, o.11% call this home" Chicago Tribune October 12, 1999.

Kristol, I. "Petrified Europe" Wall Street Journal February 2, 1998

Lev, M. "Japan worries as women turn from marriage" Chicago Tribune March 30, 1998.

Longsworth, R. "A 'grotesque'gap" Chicago Tribune July 12, 1999.

"Millenium in Maps Population" National Geographic August, 1998.

Mosher, S. "Too Many People? Not by a Long Shot" Wall Street Journal February 10, 1997.

"Population scare gets less scary: Fertility rates falling, UN reports" Chicago Tribune November 17, 1996.

Sly, L. "China's voluntary one-child policy birthing new revolution" Chicago Tribune May 24, 1998.

Sly, L. "China: 1-child plan helped world" Chicago Tribune October 13, 1999.

Swanson, S. "Young, old stage population boom" Chicago Tribune September 23^rd, 1999.

Dorning, M. "Forced abortions in China described" Chicago Tribune June 11, 1998.

Stanley, A. "In underpopulated Italian town, mayor ponders taxing unmarrieds" Chicago Tribune November 18, 1999.

Swanson, S. "UN analysis trim global population forecasts" Chicago Tribune February 17, 1998.

Swanson, S. "UN population agency meets amid fears of a new rise in growth rate" Chicago Tribune March 25, 1999.

Zacharyk, P. "Unconventional Academic Sounds Population Alarm" Wall Street Journal July 31, 1998.