Requesting Tests: Rationale for Selection
Billions of analyses and tests are done every year costing many
billions of dollars. Physicians order tests for different reasons: (1) to monitor
critically ill patients; (2) to detect and diagnose diseases; (3) and, unfortunately,
because the test is available. Contributing to the situation is the automated system which
provides a battery of tests on a single patient sample. Not all tests may be necessary for
a given patient. Totally unnecessary testing probably accounts for less than 10%, but it
represents an area of potential health care cost reduction.
Physicians' perceptions as to what constitutes "good" data
varies both in general and for specific laboratory tests. Also, individual physicians vary
in deciding what is a significant change in a test result when repeated, and how much of a
change justifies a change in therapy.
Specific examples of this variation include glucose in a
well-controlled diabetic hospitalized patient with myocardial infarction, and cholesterol
in a routine physical exam.
In the case of glucose, if the reported value is 110 mg/dL (+ 7
mg/dL, analytical variation), 42% of 125 internists felt a second day result of 145 mg/dL
was clinically significant, 22% thought 140 mg/dL was clinically significant and 17%
thought 130 mg/dL was clinically significant.
In the case of cholesterol with a reported value of 240 mg/dl (+
19 mg/dL, analytical variation), 22% felt that 260 mg/dL on a second office visit was
clinically significant, 20%, 290 mg/dL, and 15%, 280 mg/dL.
These physician responses would seem to lessen the desire for the
laboratory to improve their accuracy and precision. However, increased accuracy and
precision allows interlaboratory performance to improve and to focus on the predictive
value of the analytical result, which ultimately provides the physician with the
probability of positive diagnostic information.
The predictive value of the analytical result is based on the
specificity and sensitivity of the analytical method and the incidence of the disease in
the tested population. (More precisely, the frequency of the disease during a specified
time period.)
The predictive value for any given test can be calculated from
population data (i.e., number of patients with and without the disease), the result of
true positive and false negative results and the prevalence of the disease during the time
period in which the tests were done.
To give you a feeling for this, let's look at some hypothetical
results. A test with 95% sensitivity and 95% specificity will have the following
predictive values with the corresponding disease prevalence: