Decision Making
     Assessing and choosing among probable options

Probability Judgements
     How often something occurs, how likely something is to occur
     Can be computed objectively   through algorithms
     But we are usually subjective   using heuristics

          Framing Effects
               Asian Disease Problem
          Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic
               Make a first guess then adjust
               African Nations
               Birthday Problem

Availability Heuristic
     (Things that are recalled easier are judged to be more frequent/likely)
     Confirmation Bias
          Biased by our beliefs/desires/fears
               Gambler's Fallacy
               Hot streak          
               Persistence (Suicide Notes Study, Lord, Lepper & Ross)
               Illusory Correlations (Chapman & Chapman)
          Media Effects
          Famous Names
Representativeness Heuristic
     Preference for random or expected outcomes
     Base Rate Neglect
     Conjunction Fallacy
     Lack of use of Sample size

Simulation Heuristic
     if we can imagine an event happening it seems more likely
     we make a number of judgments based on the narrative of
     events leading up to a result 
          counter-factuals (the undoing heuristic)
          hindsight bias