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October , 2006
A Seminar presented with UIC College of Urban Planning and Public Affairs,
The LEAP IGERT Graduate Program, and UIC Institute for Envrionmental Science and Policy |
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| Title |
What will the United States'
Population Footprint Look Like in 2050?
Modeling the Spatial Dynamics and Environmental and
Resource Impacts of U.S. Metropolitan Growth and Change
A National Science Foundation Human and Social Dynamics Project |
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| Speaker |
John D. Landis
Professor, City and Regional Planning
University of California at Berkeley
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| Location |
Great Cities Institute
412 South Peoria Street, Suite 400
Chicago, IL 60607
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Between now and 2050, the population of the United States will likely grow by
120 million people, according to the middle-series projections published by the
U.S. Census Bureau. In many ways, the where and how side of the future may be more
important than the how many side. To the degree that future spatial development
patterns mirror those of the recent past, most of the increase in the U.S. population
will occur at the edges of existing metropolitan areas, and at densitites that are
substantially below those of older cities and regions.
Understanding and projecting future development locations and forms has never been
a major national priority in the U.S. Except for a very few cases, there have been no national
studies of the spatial extent, patterns, and impacts of population growth in America. To
remedy this situation, a two-year National Science Foundation project is now underway to:
- Build a comprehensive national spatial database for measuring the extent, patterns, and
environmental and resource impacts of metropolitan growth in the United States;
- Use this database to identify key and common drivers of metropolitan growth across all
continental U.S. regions and metropolitan areas;
- Construct a series of GIS-based models for projecting and simulating alternative future
patterns and densities of U.S. population growth; and
- Explore the impacts of three alternative development scenarios on the natural
landscape and ecology, on urban energy and water use, and on vehicle miles of travel -- a
major correlate with urban air pollution.
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