GCI Working Paper Series -
Metropolitan Sustainability and Transportation
A Quality Control Framework
for Bus Schedule Reliability
Jie Lin, Ming L. Wang, & Darold T. Barnum
May 2008
GCP-08-06
This paper develops and demonstrates a quality control framework for bus schedule
reliability. Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) devices provide necessary data; Data
Envelopment Analysis (DEA) yields a valid summary measure from partial reliability
indicators; and Panel Data Analysis provides statistical confidence boundaries for each
route-direction’s DEA scores. If a route-direction’s most recent DEA score is below its
lower boundary, it is identified as in need of immediate attention. The framework is
applied to 29 weeks of AVL data from 24 Chicago Transit Authority bus routes (and
therefore 48 route-directions), thereby demonstrating that it can provide quick and
accurate quality control.
Comparing the Performance of
Urban Transit Bus Routes after Adjusting
for the Environment, Using Data Envelopment Analysis
Darold T. Barnum, Sonali Tandon, & Sue McNeil
April 2008
GCP-08-05
Urban transit managers strive to attain multiple goals with tightly constrained resources. Ratio
analysis has evolved into a powerful tool for dealing with these goals and constraints. Ratio
analysis provides analytical methods for comparing the performance of multiple agencies, as well
as the performance of subunits within a particular agency, in order to identify opportunities for
improvement. One ratio analysis procedure that has become increasingly popular is Data Envelopment
Analysis (DEA). DEA yields a single, comprehensive measure of performance, the ratio of the aggregated,
weighted outputs to aggregated, weighted inputs. This paper makes two contributions to the practice of
urban transit performance evaluation using DEA. First, instead of using DEA to compare the performance
of multiple transit systems, it uses DEA to compare the performance of multiple bus routes of one urban
transit system. Second, it introduces a new procedure for adjusting the raw DEA scores that modifies
these scores to account for the environmental influences that are beyond the control of the transit agency.
Estimating Data Envelopment Analysis
Frontiers for Nonsubstitutable
Inputs and Outputs: The Case of Urban Mass Transit
Darold T. Barnum & John M. Gleason
February 2008
GCP-08-03
Conventional data envelopment analysis (DEA) models assume that inputs are substitutable for each other, and that
outputs are substitutable for each other. However, recent DEA articles frequently include outputs that cannot be
substituted for each other and inputs that cannot be substituted for each other. In this paper, we demonstrate
that conventional DEA models report invalid efficiency scores when outputs and/or inputs are nonsubstitutable.
We use artificial data to illustrate the differences between the efficient frontiers of substitutable and
nonsubstitutable variables. Assuming that the inputs and outputs are nonsubstitutable, we compare the DEA scores
from a conventional DEA model with those from a new model, the Fixed Proportion Additive (FPA) model, which we
developed to deal with nonsubstitutable variables. Then, we apply the conventional and FPA models to real-world
data involving urban mass transit systems, where the outputs are nonsubstitutable, and where the inputs are
nonsubstitutable. Finally, we make recommendations for model use when inputs or outputs are nonsubstitutable,
one involving the development of new models and the others involving adaptations that can be made if one wishes to
use conventional models.
DEA Efficiency Analysis Involving
Multiple Production Processes with an
Application to Urban Mass Transit
Darold T. Barnum & John M. Gleason
February 2008
GCP-08-02
This paper addresses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency analysis in organizations with multiple production
processes. It shows how to measure the impact on an organization’s overall efficiency of (a) inefficient and
superefficient subunits, and (b) the efficiency with which input resources are allocated to the subunits. It
introduces a simple model for efficiently allocating inputs among subunits, and applies the entire analytical
process to a large urban mass transit agency.
Estimating DEA Confidence Intervals for
Canadian Urban Paratransit Agencies
Using Panel Data Analysis
Darold T. Barnum, John M. Gleason, & Brendon Hemily
January 2008
GCP-08-01
This paper illustrates three concepts new to the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
literature, and applies them to data from Canadian urban paratransit agencies. First,
it predicts valid confidence intervals and trends for each agency’s true efficiency.
Second, it uses Panel Data Analysis methodology, a set of statistical procedures that
are more likely to produce valid estimates than those commonly used in DEA studies.
Third, it uses a new method of identifying and adjusting for environmental effects that
has more power than conventional procedures.
Using Panel Data Analysis to
Estimate Confidence Intervals for the DEA Efficiency
of Individual Urban Paratransit Agencies
Darold T. Barnum, John M. Gleason, & Brendon Hemily
December 2007
GCP-07-10
This paper demonstrates a methodology using Panel Data Analysis to estimate confidence intervals for the
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency of individual urban paratransit agencies and the statistical
significance of trends in individual agency efficiency. The procedure accounts for stochastic variations
of the inputs and outputs of the target agency as well as stochastic variations of the inputs and outputs
of its efficient benchmark peers. The procedure is demonstrated using nine years of data from 34 urban
paratransit agencies.
Comparing the Efficiency
of Urban Transit Park and Ride Lots
Using Data Envelopment Analysis
Darold T. Barnum, Sue McNeil, & Jonathon Hart
December 2007
GCP-07-09
This paper discusses the need for a performance measure that compares the efficiencies
of subunits within an urban transportation organization, reflects the diversity of inputs
and outputs, and is objective and consistent. The paper presents a method for developing
such a performance indicator, and illustrates its use with an application to the park-and-ride
lots of the Chicago Transit Authority. The proposed method applies Data Envelopment Analysis
supplemented by Stochastic Frontier Analysis to estimate efficiency scores for each subunit.
The paper demonstrates how the scores can provide objective and valid indicators of each subunit’s
efficiency, while accounting for key goals and values of internal and external stakeholders. The scores
can be practically applied by a transit agency to identify subunit inefficiencies, and, as
demonstrated by several brief case studies, this information can be used as the basis for changes
that will improve both subunit and system performance.
The Ecological City:
Metaphor versus Metabolism
Sharon Haar
Associate Professor, School of Architecture
University of Illinois at Chicago
February 2007
GCP-07-05
In this study – a textual and visual analysis – I look at
the ways the term “ecology” has been used to motivate western-style
modernism in a global context and to prescribe and advance design decisions
based largely in formal, compositional, and stylistic assumptions. Among
the questions I am interested in is how new frameworks – sustainability,
sustainable communities, and sustainable design – extend earlier
ecological metaphors and the extent to which they have sublimated stylistic
and formal design ideas without truly resolving the impact of modernization
on the landscape.
Metropolitan
Decentralization in Chicago:
Summary Report,
Chicago Case Study Working Group
For more information, contact Wim Wiewel
July 2001
The report discusses the realities of sprawl in the Chicago area and
the impacts it has on social welfare. The authors also examine the policies
that have led to sprawl and give recommendations for slowing sprawl
in the Chicago region.
*This paper is in draft form. Some of the figures are missing.
The
Proposed New Interstate 69 Highway:
Is It a Cost-Effective Rural Economic
Development Tool for Southwest Indiana?
Wim Wiewel, Joseph J. Persky, & Mark Edward
Sendzik
August 1999
GCP-99-3
This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the Evansville-to-Bloomington
portion of the proposed new Interstate 69 highway in Southwest Indiana
in fulfilling its stated purpose of stimulating economic development
in four rural Indiana counties. We compare the proposed highway with
other rural economic development programs and strategies such as rural
enterprise zones, federal economic development programs, business incubators,
and local industrial development groups. In addition, we use a variety
of state cost and job creation estimates, cost calculations, and comparison
figures. Although this study does not take a position on whether the
proposed new highway should be built, we conclude that if the purpose
of the I-69 project is economic development in these rural counties,
far more cost-efficient alternatives almost certainly exist. Peering
into the Urban.
Peering into the
Urban Future:
Blurred Visions, Double Visions, and a Little Clear Thinking
Anthony M. Orum
November 1997
GCP-97-8
This essay reviews four major books that address the following conditions:
changes in the world economy that lead to capital mobility, the growing
polarity between the rich and the poor, and the political disputes,
particularly in the United States, between central cities and their
fringe areas.
Regional Cooperation and
Sustainable Growth:
A Study of Nine Councils of Government in the Northeastern
Illinois Region
Bonnie Lindstrom
November 1997
GCP-97-9
This research examines the historical development, functional responsibilities,
and sub-regional economic development agendas of nine councils of government
in the six county northeastern Illinois region. Formed in response to
the need of mayors and managers to consult on issues specific to their
sub-regions and in response to the mandate of ISTEA for local consultation
on transportation issues, the councils represent a new form of functional
regionalism.
Economic Renaissance in
the Windy City: The Wind of Change, or Just Hot Air?
Presentation Summary
Wim Wiewel
October 1997
GCP-97-6
This paper is the summary of a presentation given at the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago conference, “The New Mosaic: New Partners, New
Ventures.” The paper provides an overview of the recent economic
growth in Chicago.
New Directions for Central City
and Suburban Development
Presentation Summary
Wim Wiewel
October 1997
GCP-97-7
Presented to the Downtown Economic Development Summit in Wilmington,
Delaware, this paper makes the claim that cities are still the most
creative, most productive, and most vibrant places and should be considered
as such by the federal government through effective urban policy. The
author calls for concerted government actions and private sector participation
to initiate and sustain growth in urban regions.
The Centrality of Place:
The Urban Imagination of Sociologists
Anthony M. Orum
April 1997
GCP-97-4
This paper discusses the importance of urban place. The author conveys
his view of how place works by describing personal experiences with
urban places and by citing various perspectives on place as hope and
aspiration, place as community, and place as neighborhood.
Property Taxes and Commercial
Real Estate Values in Urban Areas
John F. McDonald
September 1996
GCP-96-11
The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of the effects of
property taxation on market rents and values of commercial and industrial
real estate in urban areas. The research is based on data from commercial
and industrial real estate in the Chicago metropolitan area.
Solid Waste Incineration in the
Chicago Metropolitan Area:
The Battle Over the Illinois Rate Law
Mark Sendzik & Wim Wiewel
July 1996
GCP-96-10
In the 1980’s, the federal, state, and local governments developed
a range of policies to handle the disposal of solid waste. This paper
provides an overview for the events that led to the adoption of the
controversial 1988 Retail Rate Law, which responded to the threat of
a solid waste crisis in Chicago. Also, the paper examines the nature
of the forces promoting and opposing the Retail Rate Law as well as
two incinerator proposals.
Central
City and Suburban Development: Who Pays and Who Benefits?
Joseph Persky & Wim Wiewel
May 1996
GCP-96-8
This paper addresses the overall social costs of firms locating in the
outer ring suburbs of large urban areas. The evidence presented suggests
that for society as a whole, deconcentration of development to outer
ring suburban areas brings few or no net gains while presenting significant
inequities in the distribution of costs and benefits.
Value, Exchange and the Social
Economy: Framework and Paradigm Shift in Urban Policy
David Fasenfest
March 1996
GCP-96-3
This article explores the effects of the dominant model on the research
agenda in urban policy analysis. It articulates and delineates the benefits,
shifting from an analysis of a market to a social economy framework.
The author develops the argument in two stages: the nature and scope
of the market paradigm, and a perspective on the need for an intellectually
consistent alternative framework.
Structural Behavior and Condition of Douglas Line Elevated Structure
Mohsen A. Issa
January 1996
GCP-96-1
This paper details the results of a field investigation carried out
at several locations along the Douglas line of Chicago’s elevated
train to determine the adequacy of loading conditions. The report poses
the question: does the system require replacement or partial repair
and rehabilitation where necessary? The content of this report is highly
technical in nature due to the emphasis on structural analysis.
An Investigation into the Impact
of Hazardous Waste Contamination Liability
on Urban Industrial Land
Redevelopment in the City of Chicago
Daniel T. McGrath
December 1995
GCP-95-5
The purpose of this research is to investigate how the behavior of buyers
and developers of industrial property in Chicago might be influenced
by the perceived environmental contamination of the property. This study
takes a historical look at the problem and presents a method to measure
its impact on both industrial land value and industrial redevelopment
within the City of Chicago.
Chicagoans Views on Expanding
Legalized Gambling in Illinois
Barry Rundquist & Gerald Strom
October 1995
GCP-95-3
This report summarizes the views of Chicagoans on expanded legalized
gambling in Illinois. It is based on a survey of 640 Chicago residents.
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