CUED

Skilled and Semi-skilled Metalworking Trades in West Town,
a Chicago Neighborhood

Study Findings. The study concludes that the establishment of training programs in WestTown concentrating on the metalworking trades is warranted. Despite WestTown and Cook County decline in durable goods manufacturing industries and in metalworking occupations within those industries, a combination of job replacement in an older workforce and normal job turnover in conjunction with an apparent continued need for skilled labor will create a modest demand for well trained entry level workers in the metalworking trades. These employment opportunities for WestTown residents might be further enhanced if increased access to the available jobs is obtained by the establishment of working relationships with WestTown employers and/or Unions. The balance of this Summary will elaborate on these findings and on recommendations for developing training programs.

Background Patterns of Employment Decline. The prospects for employment in the WestTown or Cook County metalworking industries are conditioned by general regional trends toward durable goods manufacturing decline. In Illinois, the share of national employment in Fabricated Metals fell from 11.1 percent in 1967 to 9.5 percent in 1976. Almost all of this relative decline occurred in Cook County, which fell from 7.4 percent to 5.9 percent of the national total in the same period. In the Machinery industries, Illinois fell from 11.8 percent to 10.1 percent, and Cook County from 5.0 to 3.4 percent. Both of these industries were nationally virtually stagnant through this period, hence these declines in relative shares of employment also mean an absolute decline.

The picture for WestTown is not any better. Considering only firms with twenty or more employees in the ten-year period 1967-1977, WestTown had a net loss of 59 firms and 4,217 jobs in the Metalworking industries (a decline of 28 percent). This decline is considerably worse than that for Cook County as a whole, and the trend is likely to remain the same, and even worsen, in the coming decade. The study projects employment going down from 10,644 in 1977, to 9,346 in 1980, 8,818 in 1985 and 8,136 in 1990. Moreover, WestTown's share of Cook County employment in these industries is projected to decrease from 8.2 percent in 1980 to 7.5 percent in 1985, and 7.2 in 1990. Also, the general improvements in transportation and communications, as well as the growth of large firms and conglomerates, suggest that the advantages of similar firms locating near each other, a historically important factor attracting industry to WestTown, are of declining importance relative to other locational factors. As a result, decentralization of the Metalworking industries from WestTown will continue. Finally, there is no evidence that wages in metalworking occupations have been increasing at a particularly rapid rate. This is to say that there is not a real shortage in this industry because in the fairly competitive labor market of the metalworking trades, a real shortage should be reflected in considerable wage increases.

Limited Employment Expansion. Looking at the breakdown in employment trends by type of firm, the study found that in Plumbing and Heating and in Metal Services, the net WestTown decline was only one firm for the period 1967-77. Not surprisingly, then, these same two industries were the only ones to show employment expansion: 19 percent for Plumbing and Heating and 15 percent for Metal Services. Plumbing and Heating may be a critical sector in WestTown. If it maintains its 1976 levels of employment, the total employment projections developed in the study will understate the likely job opportunities. The forecasts for the Cook County area show increases in employment in Metal Stamping, Metal Shaping Machinery and General Industrial Machinery. This occurs primarily because of strong national growth in these industries.

WestTown Job Prospects. With the few exceptions explained above, job openings in the Metalworking industries of WestTown and Cook County do not seem to come from growth in these industries. There is, however, an important source of employment not considered so far that regularly accounts for many job openings---job replacement. For example, in the upcoming decade, the general aging of the labor force is likely to provide 79 job openings among Tool and Die Makers and 84 among Machinists in WestTown. Estimates of job openings resulting from routine turnover are hard to make because it is difficult to know to what extent individuals in each occupation leave existing jobs in the area for other occupations or for other geographical locations. However, voluntary quits seem to be the most important sources of job openings in the Metalworking trades of WestTown Metalworking industries. The study tentatively suggests that something in the neighborhood of a 5 to 10 percent annual job opening rate from this source might be expected within the skilled and semiskilled occupations, clearly exceeding growth and replacement in the area. When comparing growth and replacement for selected occupations in WestTown, the study estimates 142 job openings in the metalworking trades for the period 1980-85 and 94 for 1985-90. Also, a considerable number of job openings will be available from the same sources in the Cook County area, where the picture is brighter than that for WestTown.

These study findings are further collaborated by a survey by the Mayor's Council of Manpower and Economic Advisers carried out in 1975-76. The survey shows that 61 percent of the Fabricated Metal firms and 71 percent of the Machinery firms reported problems in recruiting skilled labor. Moreover, 47 percent of the Fabricated Metal firms and 72 percent of the Machinery firms saw the major problem in recruiting as the fact that local labor did not meet their skill requirements. These figures seem to suggest that firms would be relatively eager to find a new source of skilled labor.

Qualifications. The study findings may be conservative in several important ways. First, the study did not consider small firms with less than 20 employees. These firms were not included in the study because they are very likely to be missed by the industrial surveys used. In general, it is very hard to find reliable information about them. The provision of skilled labor could be a very important factor for small firms which cannot afford to train their own employees and which are an important source of new employment at the present.

A second conservative qualification is that the study explored only prospects for employment in the metalworking trades in durable goods manufacturing industries. There may be significant job prospects in these trades in non-durable goods manufacturing.

In conclusion, the success of a training program in this area would seem to depend on its ability to obtain access to the job openings described, that is, on setting up a strong organization, able to produce a differential access to the jobs created in favor of its trainees and/or graduates. This is what most schools attempt to do by means of improving their quality above that of their competitors, or by developing important ties which become definite in placing their graduates. In the case of WestTown, some issues such as the City's efforts to retain and even attract industries to depressed areas, the struggle for equal opportunities in employment for minorities and especially the struggle for youth employment and for the penetration of new labor markets for Latins, can be explored and taken advantage of for that purpose. In any case, the importance of establishing working relationships with WestTown employers and/or Unions must be emphasized. Training can improve the quality of labor in West Town, making it more competitive. Also, a concerted action between community groups and industrialists aimed at dealing with some of the factors negatively affecting the area, together with a strong commitment to improving labor skills could make a difference in relation to the decision of firms to remain in the area and could be used as an argument to attract other firms to WestTown.

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UIC-Center for Urban Economic Development